There has been a huge number of stories in the news lately about Ebola: one of the latest is this story on the BBC. The report is of a speech by Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, President of Liberia. She makes the case that everyone has a stake in the fight against Ebola. My opinion (and I am not alone in this) is that the problem is that the rest of the world is complacent about the risk, and so not enough is being done.

The complacency is illustrated by this BBC report, in which the head of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) blamed the infection of a health worker in Texas on a "breach of protocol", a statement made before a thorough investigation. That investigation might yet show that the CDC's protocols are inadequate to contain the disease. Given that health workers continue to get infected in West Africa despite attempts to implement containment protocols based on the CDC's, two health workers in Texas have been infected (as described in this BBC story) and that a health worker in Spain has also been infected (as reported in this BBC story), people should be looking seriously at the possibility that Ebola's transmission mechanisms are more effective than the containment protocols assume.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has been warning for some time that the mortality rate for people catching this particular strain of Ebola is 70%, not 50% as previously thought, and that the number of people infected is being significantly under-reported. In a recent bulletin from the WHO, covered in a report by The Guardian, they say that there could be as many 10,000 new cases of Ebola a week, within two months. Whilst the majority of these cases will be in West Africa, don't feel too cocky: it is coming to the country where you live too. Scientists have calculated that there is a 75% chance the virus could be imported to France by October 24th, and a 50% chance it could hit Britain by that date (as reported here by Business Insider).

There are reasonable grounds to believe that the better health infrastructure in Western countries will prevent an out of control outbreak of Ebola in North America and Europe (note: reasonable grounds, not a guarantee). Nevertheless, infected people will continue to arrive from elsewhere, and health workers will continue to get infected by patients: belief that it will be otherwise is naive. The richer nations will send more health workers and military personnel to West Africa to help fight the disease, as we should, and some of those will be infected, and will be repatriated for treatment, helping to spread the disease.

Another mechanism by which Ebola will spread is refugees. There is already a problem with refugees arriving in Southern Europe (Italy, Greece, Malta and Spain) from North Africa. Currently many of them are from Syria and North African states, but my guess is that there is already a wave of refugees on the move from West Africa, yet to reach Europe, and that eventually some of them will bring Ebola with them.

What the world desperately needs is a vaccine to protect against Ebola, and drugs that are effective in treating Ebola, but those are both not yet fully developed and tested.

I have been saying for a few years that such a health crisis is inevitable, and that history warned us it was coming. The history of the development of human civilisation is a series of (largely out of control) growth spurts, which end with a plateau as population becomes limited by some disease or other. Advances in medicine, sanitation and standards of personal hygiene have overcome each of these limitations, and allowed the start of another growth spurt. Ebola seems like it might be the latest growth-limiting disease.

From an environmental perspective, Ebola may be a good thing (and not just for Fruit Bats). Global warming, species loss, habitat loss, water and air pollution are all caused by people: by there being too many people. A pause in the growth of, or even a small reduction in, human population and our consumption of resources will maybe give the natural world a much needed breather. Of course, none of that makes it any easier if you are lying on a bed in an isolation ward suffering from Ebola, or if you lose a friend or relative to the disease.

Is there anything that you can do? Well, there are some things: choose your travel destinations carefully, whether for business or pleasure; think carefully before shaking hands or kissing cheeks in any society where the disease may be present; don't lie about your potential exposure when entering a country or being quizzed; and if you get sick, don't hesitate, but report it to a medical professional.