This blog posting represents the views of the author, David Fosberry. Those opinions may change over time. They do not constitute an expert legal or financial opinion.

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Civilisation Is Carcinogenic To Our Planet.

Posted on 6th August 2023

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This article on Salon.com presents the opinion of a physician that human civilisation is carcinogenic to our environment.

I have no argument with that opinion; to me it seems unarguably true.

There is, however, an entirely possible consequence of this opinion. If it is a fair characterisation, and we think of the natural environment as an organism, there is a non-zero risk that the planet may mount an immune response to humanity, treating us as an infection and attempting to rid itself of the plague of humans. This immune response could be of several forms:

  • New diseases affecting humans; this is already happening (e.g. Covid-19);
  • Existing diseases becoming more dangerous (more infectious and/or drug resistant); this is is already happening (e.g. bacteria resistant to multiple antibiotics, diseases increasing their geographical range);
  • Increased geographical range of dangerous species; this is already happening (e.g. so-called murder hornets, poisonous snakes and spiders);
  • Increased frequency and severity of natural disasters (weather and earthquakes); this is already happening;
  • Wild species learning behaviour that is harmful to humans; this is already happening (e.g. Orca teaching other Orca how to overturn and sink small to medium sized boats, large predators such as tigers becoming man-eaters, more attacks by rogue elephants, bison, bears, etc.);
  • Growing problems with agricutural pests; this is already happening.

I am sure that this list can easily be expanded.

All this does not imply that there is any consciousness behind the changes, but statistically it looks as if something could be going on.

The answer is not to to wage war with the natural world (I am not sure how we could wage war on natural disasters anyway); the answer is to learn to be better house guests on the planet that we share.

Will Market Forces Be Enough To Phase Out Fossil Fuels?

Posted on 22nd July 2023

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This report on The Hill suggests that market forces would be sufficient to drastically reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. I disagree.

The author argues that the price of fossil fuels is very heavily subsidised by governments, allowing oil, coal and gas to out-compete renewable energy, keeping the world hooked on such polluting resources, and that eliminating these subsidies would make fossil fuels uncompetitive. This is unarguable.

My problems with the suggested approach to rebalancing energy markets using market forces are:

  1. It is too slow. It will take time to cancel the subsidies, and will be hard to do because the industry has huge political leverage, and there will be fall-out on employment. This is time that we do not have.
  2. Even if fossil fuel usage is drastically reduced, the damage to the environment, health and quality of life has already been done, and the repair of that damage needs to be paid for.
  3. The fossil fuel industry deliberately lied to us about the risks of climate change for decades, and they should be punished.

We have never paid the true cost of fossil fuels, because of the subsidies, and because of the costs due to pollution that have always been paid by others (mainly governments and the populace at large).

Paying the true cost means not only removing subsidies, but also charging the industry for the costs to us all of using this source of energy.

Former UN Climate Chief Is An Idiot!

Posted on 11th July 2023

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The headline of this report on Common Dreams says it all: "Former UN Climate Chief Admits She Was Wrong That Fossil Fuel Industry Could Be an Ally ."

How stupid is this woman? Big Oil is demonstrably just as untrustworthy as Big Tobacco, but this woman, Christiana Figueres, thought that these companies could be an ally in the fight against climate change.

This level of stupidity and gullibility should disqualify someone from holding a position such as United Nations climate chief.

Time for the UN to overhaul their hiring practice.

Deforestation Is Down In Brazil, But It Needs To Be Reversed!

Posted on 11th July 2023

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This article on The BBC reports that deforestation in the Amazon is down by 33.6% in the first six months of the new Brazilian president's term.

While this might seem to be good news, what we really and urgently need is reforestation.

Water Technology Will Be The Next Goldrush.

Posted on 11th July 2023

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This report on The Next Web aligns with what I have been saying for some time.

Water is becoming a greater and greater problem around the world: "Demand is skyrocketing but supply is diminishing." There are again droughts in the USA (in California, Arizona and in the maize/corn growing parts of the great plains). River levels are again low in rivers in Europe, affecting river traffic on the Rhine.

I strongly believe that water shortages will drive massive increases in migration, and potentially also wars. So it is no surprise to me that water technology, to solve the issues of shortages, will be a huge growth industry in the near future.

Industry Lobbying Set To Undermine EU Environmental Legislation.

Posted on 11th July 2023

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This report on The Guardian is very worrying. It shows that the EU suffers from the same poison of lobbying as exists in the USA, which undermines democracy.

The EU had promised to "outlaw all but the most essential of Europe’s hazardous chemicals", including PFAS and other toxic and carcinogenic chemicals. Now, however, the EU’s executive are planning to climbdown under heavy pressure from Europe’s chemical industry and rightwing political parties.

The real problem with all this is that the lobbyists' arguments make no financial sense. The EU's analysis shows that the savings in the costs of treating illnesses such as cancer and obesity would amount to €11bn-€31bn (£9.4bn-£26.5bn) a year, whereas the costs to industry of banning these polluting chemicals would be around €0.9bn-€2.7bn a year (about a tenth of the savings).

I do not understand why the EU is bowing to industry lobbying, when there is no financial justification, and banning these harmful chemicals would yield enormous benefits in terms of health, quality of life and life expectancy.

Polluted Tap Water In The USA.

Posted on 8th July 2023

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A recent study on tap water quality is reported on by Reuters and the Daily Mail (the Daily Mail article is more comprehensive).

The study shows that nearly half (45%) of the 700 tested tap water samples were polluted with PFAS (perfluoroalkyl or polyfluoroalkyl substances), commonly referred to as forever chemicals because they do not degrade in the environment nor in human or animal bodies, at levels exceeding safety benchmarks and U.S. proposed regulations (the EPA does not yet have enforceable regulations for PFAS).

PFAS are highly toxic and carcinogenic (cancer causing).

PFAS are used in textiles, fire suppressant foams (used extensively by firefighters at airfields), non-stick cookware, etc.

One sample, in Brunswick County, North Carolina, contained 46,000 times the proposed EPA limit! Other pollution hot spots include a region in Iowa, Philadelphia and Miami; I have friends in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Americans don't drink so much bottled water, because tap water is cheaper (free in bars and restaurants), and most of them don't like sparkling water. They might want to think again about those choices. The next time I am in the US and someone criticises me for drinking bottled (sparkling) water they are going to get an earful.

Climate For Billions Could Become Unliveable.

Posted on 22nd June 2023

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While the headline of this report on EcoWatch is a little misleading, it is nonetheless worrying news.

A study by the University of Exeter has calculated that the climate for billions of people (so, a very significant portion of the human population) will move outside of the “human climate niche”, which is defined in terms of temperature, due to climate change. Already, 9% of the world population are living outside of this climate niche.

The impacts will be huge, and include:

  • Increased death rates due to temperature stress and reduced life expectancy;
  • More sickness and reduced quality of life for the billions of people living in at-risk areas;
  • Decreased productivity, with impacts for the finances of both the individual people and their governments;
  • Increased migration to more hospitable climates.

The worst affected places will be India and parts of Africa, but will also include South East Asia, The Middle East, Central America, some Pacific Islands, and even Australia.

The Economy Will Be Hit Very Hard By Climate Change.

Posted on 13th June 2023

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Although this article on Common Dreams reads like a propaganda piece, full of rants and political bias, with phrases like "the oil companies' choice to use their monopoly over the energy system to offset their falling profits" and "the funding of the repressive apparatus", the author makes a good point (and he is not the first).

His thesis is in the title: "The Climate Crisis Will Be the Mother of All Financial Crises", and that some of our recent economic woes (inflation, supply chain problems and bank collapses) are just a foretaste of what the climate crisis will bring. The arguments are the same as those of the people warning us of societal collapse, which I wrote about here.

A major financial crisis is the most likely trigger for societal collapse, and that means that we can look forward to not only raging inflation and the loss of our investments, government benefits (tax allowances, unemployment benefit and health care) and pensions, but the resulting collapse of international trading (so, no more coffee for most of us, no out of season fruit and vegetables, and so on), law and order, public transport (transportation, to any Americans), the services that supply us with electricity, water, sewage handling, garbage collection, etc.

As a result, we can forget voting and constitutional rights, eating regularly and safe drinking water.

Life is likely to become very unpleasant, difficult and unsafe.

Those people, often viewed as nut jobs, who are survivalists, with a bunker, guns, batteries, stockpiles of food and generators won't look so crazy if it all comes to pass.

The UK Makes A Complete Dog’s Dinner Of The Transition To Renewable Energy.

Posted on 1st March 2023

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As this report on Sky News makes clear, the UK is not ready for the urgent and essential transition to renewable energy. It also suggests that governments are just as guilty of greenwashing as corporations.

The National Grid Electricity System Operator (ESO) is paying millions in "constraint costs", which may rise to as much as £2.5bn per year by the middle of this decade, before the necessary upgrades are made to the electricity distribution network (The National Grid).

These constraint costs arise because the National Grid doesn't have the capacity to deliver the power from wind farms in Scotland and in the North Sea to where it is needed in the more densely populated south of the country, and comprise:

  1. Paying for wind generators to be turned off (£215m in 2022),
  2. Paying to run expensive and polluting gas turbines located closer to the demand (£717m in 2022).

Scotland is not only where much of the UK's wind turbine capacity is located, but also where the fast growing sector of tidal electricity generation is based. This new source of power will also be severely undermined by the inadequacy of The National Grid.

Caribbean coral reefs could vanish in 20 years

Posted on 3rd July 2014

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This report on the BBC reminds us all that our planet is not healthy.

The story describes the findings of a recent study, which concludes that many of the Caribbean's coral reefs could vanish in the next 20 years.

The cause seems to be overfishing and disease, leading to a reduction in the populations of sea urchins and parrot fish, both of which graze on algae. The result is that reefs are being swamped by green algae, killing off the coral and thus eliminating the other reef-dwelling species.

All this is just more of the same bad news. Another BBC report, here, presents an overview of the impact that the human race is having on planet earth, describing humans as a "super-organism" and likening us to slime-mould and ant colonies. One of the key problems with this super-organism is that, whilst individual humans are intelligent (self-aware and able to learn from experience - two of the key scientific tests for intelligence), the collective whole does not seem to be: the human super-organism does not seem to be self-aware, and it constantly demonstrates its inability to learn from experience.

If the human race does not solve this basic problem, in particular limiting the irresponsible exploitation of natural resources due to individual self-interest, there really is no hope for our world.